fmpВестник Московского Университета. Серия XXV. Международные отношения и мировая политикаLomonosov World Politics Journal2076-7404Московский государственный университет имени М.В.Ломоносоваfmp-65Research ArticleМИРОВОЙ ПОРЯДОК В XXI ВЕКЕWORLD ORDER IN THE XXI CENTURYОсобенности междержавной конкуренции в условиях взаимозависимостиRivalry between the Leading Powers in the Context of Global InterdependenceИстоминИ. А.IstominI. A.

Истомин Игорь Александрович – кандидат политических наук, доцент кафедры прикладного анализа международных проблем   

119454, Москва, пр-т Вернадского, 76

Igor’ A. Istomin – PhD (Political Science), Associate Professor at the Chair of Applied International Analysis

76, Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454

iaistomin@gmail.comФедеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Московский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) Министерства иностранных дел Российской Федерации»РоссияMoscow State Institute for International Relations (University)Russian Federation20182611202010172101Copyright © Московский государственный университет имени М.В.Ломоносова, 20202020Московский государственный университет имени М.В.ЛомоносоваМосковский государственный университет имени М.В.Ломоносоваhttps://fmp.elpub.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://fmp.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/65

Развитие в современной мировой системе параллельных тенденций углубления политических противоречий между ведущими державами и наращивания экономической интегрированности стран порождает вопрос об их соотношении. Целью настоящей статьи стало выявление роли тесной экономической взаимозависимости в обострении конкуренции между ведущими державами за позиционные преимущества в вопросах международного регулирования и институциональную власть. Актуальность данной тематики объясняется тем, что утверждение своих преференций в нормативной структуре мирового экономического порядка обеспечивает стране долгосрочное закрепление собственного влияния. Раскрытие обозначенной проблемы потребовало характеристики современного этапа развития отношений между ведущими мировыми державами. Автор демонстрирует, что в 2010-х годах наблюдается обострение междержавной конкуренции на фоне подъема центров силы, представляющих альтернативу Соединенным Штатам. В статье рассматриваются конкурирующие теоретические подходы к оценке стабильности современной конфигурации мировой системы, а также к объяснению зависимости международной конфликтности от степени экономической интегрированности государств. Отмечается, что обращение к экономическому измерению мировой политики в зарубежном экспертном сообществе с конца 2000-х годов стало одной из основных линий аргументации, обосновывающей перспективы мирной и относительно бесконфликтной эволюции мирового порядка. На примерах конца 2000-х – 2010-х годов проиллюстрирован процесс превращения сферы институционального регулирования мирового хозяйства в одну из центральных арен конкуренции между ведущими державами. Наконец, в статье представлены социальные и технологические изменения, способные ограничить дальнейший рост интегрированности международной среды. Современная ситуация в некотором смысле оказывается «худшим из миров», в котором потребности государств в доступе к мировым рынкам сочетаются с серьезными различиями в их конкурентных преимуществах, а значит, и с разницей в предпочтениях относительно эволюции правил международного хозяйственного регулирования. Автор делает вывод, что подобная комбинация порождает риски дальнейшего обострения противоречий между крупнейшими международными игроками.

The existence of parallel trends in development of current international system, that of growing controversies between the leading states, on the one hand, and increasing global economic interdependence, on the other, raises question about their possible interrelation. The paper examines the impact of close economic relations among major powers on their increased competition for positional advantages in the sphere of international regulation and institutional power. High relevance of this issue stems from the fact that integration of one’s national preferences in the regulatory structures provides country with a long-term influence and increases its international competitiveness. The author identifies key features of current relations between the world’s leading powers and demonstrates that the 2010s witnessed a reemergence of intense rivalry among great powers as the rise of alternative centers of power challenges international position of the United States. The paper proceeds with an examination of competing theoretical approaches to assessing stability of the current configuration of international system as well as to explaining the impact of economic interdependence on international conflict. The author emphasizes that the appeal to economic interdependence has become one of the main lines of argumentation in the Western expert community since the end of the 2000s in terms of justifying prospects for a peaceful and relatively conflict-free evolution of the world order. However, international developments in the late 2000s-2010s show that the sphere of institutional regulation of global economy is rapidly becoming one of key areas of competition between the leading powers. The paper also examines certain social and technological trends that can limit a further growth of global economic interdependence. The current situation turns out to be the ‘worst of possible worlds’, in which the growing states’ needs for access to world markets are compounded by significant variations in their competitive advantages, and resulting differences in their preferences regarding the evolution of international economic regulation. The conclusion is drawn that such combination entails risks of a further aggravation of contradictions between the major international players.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.