Competitive Multipolarity in the Middle East and the Transformation of Turkey’s Regional Policies in the 2000s and 2010s

The paper aims to decode the logic in the revisions of Turkey’s regional policies during the 2000s and 2010s in respect to a wider context of the large-scale transformations in the Middle East and North Africa region. Methodologically the paper utilizes the concept of competitive multipolarity which allows to scrutinize the simultaneous manifestation, mutual entwinement and substantial opposition of the key trends in the development of the Middle East during the period under review. Against this background the paper examines the transformation processes in the Middle East on three interconnected levels — the global one, which reflects the alternations in the balance of power and the involvement patterns of the Global Powers in the Middle Eastern affairs; the regional one, which encompasses the relations between the main regional states; and the state level which allows to scrutinize the tangle interconnections between domestic and foreign policy imperatives of a particular Middle Eastern country. This analytical approach allowed to spotlight how both the relative decline of the American influence in the Middle East and the limited involvement in the regional developments of the EU, China and Russia contributed to the rising competitive interplay of the leading regional states with the regional leadership aspirations — namely Turkey, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, this multipolarity did not result in a sustainable balance of power in the region because the acute competitive activity of the above mentioned regional powers has primarily focused on the states in deep political crisis or the ones which are almost failed states. In this respect the case of Turkey is of a special interest for the following reasons. Ankara’s foreign policy in the 2000s and 2010s experienced large-scale transformations and pervasive changes. Partly abandoning its previous posture of a state deeply integrated in the Trans-Atlantic international relations and largely subordinated to the logic of these interrelations Turkey actively joined the struggle for the regional influence in the 2000s. Turkey’s impressive economic growth and a wide popular support both domestically and abroad facilitated the rise of Ankara’s foreign policy activities. The sound successes of Turkish business together with the large-scale internationalization of the Turkish capital have become the main drivers for Turkey’s expansion in the Middle East and North Africa. Initially other regional actors perceived the increasing role of Turkey in the regional affairs more or less favorably. However, the end of the 2010s witnessed a number of international contradictions as a result of Turkey’s rising ambitions for regional hegemony. Consequently, Turkey now is turning out to become yet another regional power which is amplifying rather than smoothing away the destructive competitiveness of the Middle Eastern multipolarity.

Middle East, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, the USA, the EU, competitive multipolarity, international organizations, multilateral institutions, regional order, regional security complex

1. Mamedov R., Makhmutov T., Pylova O. (eds.). 2019. Armii i bezopasnost’ na Blizhnem Vostoke i v Severnoi Afrike [Armies and security in the Middle East and North Africa]. Moscow, RIAC Publ. (In Russ.)

2. Naumkin V.V., Popov V.V., Kuznetsov V.A. (eds.). 2012. Blizhnii Vostok, ‘Arabskoe probuzhdenie’ i Rossiya: chto dal’she? [The Middle East, ‘Arab awakening’ and Russia: What’s next?]. Moscow, IV RAN Publ. (In Russ.).

3. Baranovskii V.G., Naumkin V.V. (eds.). 2018. Blizhnii Vostok v menyayushchemsya global’nom kontekste [The Middle East in the changing global context]. Moscow, IV RAN Publ. (In Russ.)

4. Bogaturov A.D., Kosolapov N.A., Khrustalev M.A. 2002. Ocherki teorii i metodologii politicheskogo analiza mezhdunarodnyh otnoshenij [Essays on theory and methodology in political analysis of international relations]. Moscow, NOFMO Publ. (In Russ.)

5. Grinin L.E., Isaev L.M., Korotaev A.V. 2015. Revolyutsii i nestabil’nost’ na Blizhnem Vostoke [Revolutions and instability in the Middle East]. Moscow, Uchitel’ Publ. (In Russ.)

6. Gromyko Al.A., Nosov M.G. (eds.). 2015. Evropeiskii soyuz v poiske global’noi roli: politika, ekonomika, bezopasnost’ [European Union in search for global role: Politics, economy, security]. Moscow, Ves’ mir Publ. (In Russ.)

7. Zvyagel’skaya I. 2014. Blizhnevostochnyi klinch: konflikty na Blizhnem Vostoke i politika Rossii [The Middle East clinch: Conflicts in the Middle East and the policy of Russia]. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ. (In Russ.)

8. Karasova T.A. 2012. Izrail’ i nekotorye itogi ‘arabskoi vesny’ [Israel and some results of the ‘Arab Spring’]. In Naumkin V.V., Popov V.V., Kuznetsov V.A. (eds.). Blizhnii Vostok, ‘Arabskoe probuzhdenie’ i Rossiya: chto dal’she? [The Middle East, ‘Arab awakening’ and Russia: What’s next?]. Moscow, IV RAN Publ., pp. 486–499. (In Russ.)

9. Kosach G.G. 2012. Saudovskaya Araviya [Saudi Arabia]. In Naumkin V.V., Popov V.V., Kuznetsov V.A. (eds.). Blizhnii Vostok, ‘Arabskoe probuzhdenie’ i Rossiya: chto dal’she? [The Middle East, ‘Arab awakening’ and Russia: What’s next?]. Moscow, IV RAN Publ., pp. 356–376. (In Russ.)

10. Dynkin A.A., Ivanova N.I. (eds.) 2011. Rossiya v policentrichnom mire [Russia in polycentric world]. Moscow, Ves’ Mir Publ. (In Russ.)

11. Trenin D.V. 2016. Rossiya na Blizhnem Vostoke: zadachi, prioritety, politicheskie stimuly [Russia in the Middle East: Aims, priorities, political incentives]. Moscow, Moscow Carnegie Center. Available at: https://carnegie.ru/2016/04/21/ru-pub-63388 (accessed: 10.08.2019). (In Russ.)

12. Shlykov P.V. 2011. Voennaya elita v politicheskoi sisteme Turetskoi Respubliki [Military elite in political system of Turkey]. In Geveling L.V., Drugov A.Yu. (eds.) Elity stran Vostoka [Elites of the Oriental states]. Moscow, Kljuch-S Publ., pp. 31–60. (In Russ.)

13. Shlykov P.V. 2017. Evraziistvo i evraziiskaya integratsiya v politicheskoi ideologii i praktike Turtsii [Eurasia and Eurasian integration in the political ideology and practice of Turkey]. Comparative Politics, no. 1, pp. 58–77. DOI: 10.18611/22213279-2017-8-1-58-76. (In Russ.)

14. Abdo G. 2013. The new sectarianism: The Arab uprisings and the rebirth of the Shi’a-Sunni divide. Center for Middle East Policy Analysis. Paper No. 29. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-new-sectarianism-the-arab-uprisings-and-the-rebirth-of-the-shiasunni-divide/ (accessed: 10.08.2019).

15. Abdo G. 2016. The new sectarianism: The Arab uprisings and the rebirth of the Shi’a-Sunni divide. Oxford, Oxford University Press.

16. Altun ışı k M.B. 2014. Turkey’s return to the Middle East. In Fürtig H. (ed.). Regional powers in the Middle East. New constellations after the Arab revolts. New York, Palgrave, pp. 123–144.

17. Amour P.O. 2017. Israel, the Arab Spring, and the unfolding regional order in the Middle East: A strategic assessment. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 44, no. 3, pp. 293–309. DOI: 10.1080/13530194.2016.1185696.

18. Andersen L.E., Jiang Y. 2014. Is China challenging the US in the Persian Gulf? Danish Institute for International Studies Report, no. 29. Available at: https://www.diis.dk/files/media/documents/publications/diis_report_29_web.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

19. Aras B. 2012. Turkey’s mediation and friends of mediation initiative. Center for Strategic Research Papers, no. 4. Available at: http://sam.gov.tr/turkeys-mediationand-friends-of-mediation-initiative/ (accessed: 10.08.2019).

20. Arin K.Y. 2013. The AKP’s foreign policy. Turkey’s reorientation from the West to the East? Berlin, Wissenschaftlicher Verlag Berlin.

21. Ayata B. 2015. Turkish foreign policy in a changing Arab world: Rise and fall of a regional actor? Journal of European Integration, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 95–112. DOI: 10.1080/07036337.2014.975991.

22. Ayres A. 2019. Continuity and change: The Trump administration’s South Asia policies. Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/blog/continuity-and-change-trump-administrations-south-asia-policies (accessed: 10.08.2019).

23. Bank A., Karadağ R. 2012. The political economy of regional power: Turkey under the AKP. German Institute of Global and Area Studies. GIGA Working Papers, no. 204. Available at: https://www.giga-hamburg.de/de/system/files/publications/wp204_bank-karadag.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

24. Bayer R., Keyman E.F. 2012. Turkey: An emerging hub of globalization and internationalist humanitarian actor? Globalization, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 73–90. DOI: 10.1080/14747731.2012.627721.

25. Berti B. Saudi brinkmanship in Lebanon. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/63111 (accessed: 10.08.2019).

26. Buzan B., Waver O. 2004. Regions and powers: The structure of international security. London, Cambridge University Press.

27. Calabrese J. 1998. China and the Persian Gulf: Energy and security. The Middle East Journal, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 351–366.

28. Cook S.A., Ibish H. 2017. Turkey and the GCC: Cooperation amid diverging interests. The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Issue Paper no. 1. Available at: https://agsiw.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/GCCTurkey_ONLINE-2.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

29. Coşkun B.B., Ediğ H.H. 2012. Uluslararası Örg ütler ve D ış Politika: Türkiye’nin Uluslararası Örg ütlerde Artan Gör ünürlüğü [International organizations and foreign policy: The rising visibility of Turkey in the international organizations]. In Efegil E., Erol M.S. (eds.). D ış Politika Analizinde Teorik Yakla şımlar: Türk D ış Politikas ı Örneği [Theoretic approaches towards foreign politics: The case of Turkish foreign politics]. Ankara, Bar ış Kitap, pp. 325–346. (In Turkish.)

30. Darwich M. 2014. The ontological (in)security of similarity: Wahhabism versus Islamism in Saudi foreign policy. German Institute of Global Area Studies. GIGA Working Paper, no. 263. Available at: https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/system/files/publications/wp-263-online.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

31. Davutoglu A. 2008. Turkey’s foreign policy vision: An assessment of 2007. Insight Turkey, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 77–96.

32. Demmelhuber T., Kaunert C. 2014. The EU and the Gulf monarchies: Normative power Europe in search of a strategy for engagement. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 574–592. DOI: 10.1080/09557571.2013.855168.

33. Dinçer O.B., Kutlay M. 2012. Turkey’s power capacity in the Middle East: Limits of the possible. USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. Available at: https://www.pomed.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Turkeys-PowerCapacity-in-the-Middle-East.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

34. Doğan E. 2012. A test for Turkey’s foreign policy: The Syrian crisis. TESEV. Available at: http://tesev.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/A_Test_For_Turkeys_Foreign_Policy_The_Syria_Crisis.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

35. Evron Y. 2015. China’s diplomatic initiatives in the Middle East: The quest for a greater-power role in the region. International Relations, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 125–144. DOI: 10.1177/0047117815619664.

36. Feierstein G., Greathead C. 2017. The fight for Africa: The new focus of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Middle East Institute Policy Focus, no. 2. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications/PF2_Feierstein_AfricaSaudiIran_web_4.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

37. Hinnebusch R., Ehteshami A. (eds.). 2014. Foreign policies of Middle East states. Boulder, Lynne Rienner.

38. Fuller G.E. 2007. The new Turkish Republic: Turkey as a pivotal state in the Muslim world. Washington, United States Institute of Peace Press.

39. Gause F.G. 2014. The foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. In Hinnebusch R., Ehteshami A. (eds.). Foreign policies of Middle East states. Boulder, Lynne Rienner, pp. 185–206.

40. Gerges F. 2013. The Obama approach to the Middle East: The end of America’s moment? International Affairs, vol. 89, no. 2, pp. 299–323.

41. Goldberg J. 2016. The Obama doctrine. The Atlantic. Available at: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/ (accessed: 10.08.2019).

42. Herzog M., Robins P. 2014. The role, position and agency of cusp states in international relations. London, Routledge.

43. Hinnebusch R. 2019. The Arab uprising and regional power struggle. In Akbarzadeh S. (ed.). Routledge handbook of international relations in the Middle East. New York, Routledge, pp. 110–125.

44. Hinnebusch R. 2014. The Middle East regional system. In Hinnebusch R., Ehteshami A. (eds.). Foreign policies of Middle East states. Boulder, Lynne Rienner, pp. 35–74.

45. Hinnebusch R., Shama N. 2014. The foreign policy of Egypt. In Hinnebusch R., Ehteshami A. (eds.). Foreign policies of Middle East states. Boulder, Lynne Rienner, pp. 75–104.

46. Hudson M.C. 2016. The United States in the Middle East. In Fawcett L. (ed.). International relations of the Middle East. 4 th ed. Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 356–389.

47. Hughes L., Long A. 2015. Is there an oil weapon? Security implication of changes in the structure of the international oil market. International Security, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 152–189. DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00188.

48. İdiz S. 2014. UN vote confirms Turkey’s waning influence. Al-Monitor. Available at: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/10/turkey-unitednations-security-council-vote.html (accessed: 10.08.2019).

49. Jones C. 2014. The foreign policy of Israel. In Hinnebusch R., Ehteshami A. (eds.). Foreign policies of Middle East states. Boulder, Lynne Rienner, pp. 289–314.

50. Kausch K. 2015. Competitive multipolarity in the Middle East. The International Spectator, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 1–15. DOI: 10.1080/03932729.2015.1055927.

51. Kechichian J. 1999. Trends in Saudi national security. The Middle East Journal, vol. 53, no. 2, pp. 232–253.

52. Keyman E.F., Sazak O. 2015. Turkey and Iran: The two modes of engagement in the Middle East. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 321–336. DOI: 10.1080/19448953.2015.1063803.

53. Kirişçi K. 2009. The transformation of Turkish foreign policy: The rise of the trading state. New Perspectives on Turkey, vol. 40, pp. 29–56. DOI: 10.1017/S0896634600005203.

54. Kiri ş ci K., Kaptano ğ lu N. 2011. The politics of trade and Turkish foreign policy. Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 47, no. 5, pp. 705–724. DOI: 10.1080/00263206.2011.613226.

55. Larrabee S.F. 2010. Turkey’s new geopolitics. Survival, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 157–180. DOI: 10.1080/00396331003764686.

56. Manyin M.E. et al. 2012. Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama administration’s ‘rebalancing’ toward Asia. Congressional Research Service. Washington. Available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42448.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

57. Maoz Z. 2009. Defending the Holy Land: A critical analysis of Israel’s security and foreign policy. Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press.

58. Mead W.R. 2014. The return of geopolitics: The revenge of the revisionist powers. Foreign Affairs, vol. 93, no. 3, pp. 69–79.

59. Meidan M., San A., Campbell R. 2015. China: The ‘new normal’. Oxford, The Oxford Energy Institute. Available at: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/China-the-new-normal.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

60. Molavi A. 2019. China’s global investments are declining everywhere except for one region. Three charts highlight Beijing’s growing interest in the Middle East and North Africa. Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/16/chinas-global-investments-are-declining-everywhere-except-for-one-region/ (accessed: 10.08.2019).

61. Öniş Z. 2014. Turkey and the Arab revolutions: Boundaries of regional power influence in a troubled Middle East. Mediterranean Politics, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 203–219. DOI: 10.1080/13629395.2013.868392.

62. Öniş Z., Kutlay M. 2013. Rising powers in a changing global order: The political economy of Turkey in the age of BRICS. Third World Quarterly, vol. 34, no. 8, pp. 1409–1426. DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2013.831541.

63. Pala Ö., Aras B. 2015. Practical geopolitical reasoning in the Turkish and Qatari foreign policy in the Arab Spring. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 286–302. DOI: 10.1080/19448953.2015.1063274.

64. Pınar B. 2004. A return to ‘civilizational geopolitics’ in the Mediterranean? Changing geopolitical images of the European Union and Turkey in the post-Cold War era. Geopolitics, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 269–291. DOI: 10.1080/14650040490442863.

65. Potter G. 2015. Israel’s construction of Iran as an existential threat. Journal of Palestine Studies, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 43–62. DOI: 10.1525/jps.2015.45.1.43.

66. Pressman J. 2009. Power without influence: The Bush administration’s foreign policy failure in the Middle East. International Security, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 149–179. DOI: 10.1162/isec.2009.33.4.149.

67. Rabinovich I. 2015. Israel and the changing Middle East. Brookings Middle East Memo, no. 34. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Israel-Rabinovich-01292015-1.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

68. Robins P. 2006. The 2005 BRISMES lecture: A double gravity state: Turkish foreign policy reconsidered. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 199–211. DOI: 10.1080/13530190600953351.

69. Robins P. 2014. The foreign policy of Turkey. In Hinnebusch R., Ehteshami A. (eds.). Foreign policies of Middle East states. London, Lynne Reinner, pp. 315–338.

70. Sagnic C. 2016. Challenges to Turkey’s military deployments abroad. Turkey Scope. Insights on Turkish Affairs, no. 1. Available at: https://dayan.org/content/challenges-turkey%E2%80%99s-military-deployments-abroad (accessed: 10.08.2019).

71. Salem P. 2008. The Middle East: Evolution of a broken regional order. Carnegie Papers, no. 9. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/cmec9_salem_broken_order_final.pdf (accessed: 10.08.2019).

72. Salloukh B.F. 2014. Sect supreme. Foreign Affairs. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2014-07-14/sect-supreme (accessed: 10.08.2019).

73. Shlykov P. 2018. The ‘Turkish model’ in historical perspective. Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 34–59.

74. Siniver A., Cabrera L. 2015. ‘Good citizen Europe’ and the Middle East peace process. International Studies Perspective, vol. 16, pp. 210–228. DOI: 10.1111/insp.12037.

75. S özen A. 2010. A paradigm shift in Turkish foreign policy: Transition and challenges. Turkish Studies, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 103–123. DOI: 10.1080/14683841003747062.

76. Stein E. 2019. Historical sociology and Middle East international relations. In Akbarzadeh S. (ed.). Routledge handbook of international relations in the Middle East. New York, Routledge, pp. 46–58.

77. Taşpınar Ö. 2008. Turkey’s Middle East policies: Between neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22209 (accessed: 10.08.2019).

78. Voller Y. 2015. From periphery to the moderates: Israeli identity and foreign policy in the Middle East. Political Science Quarterly, vol. 130, no. 3, pp. 505–535. DOI: 10.1002/polq.12360.

79. Volpi F. 2019. Islam, political Islam, and the state system. In Akbarzadeh S. (ed.). Routledge handbook of international relations in the Middle East. New York, Routledge, pp. 69–81.

80. Yan ı k L. 2011. Constructing Turkish ‘exceptionalism’: Discourses of liminality and hybridity in post-Cold War Turkish foreign policy. Political Geography, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 80–89. DOI: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2011.01.003.

81. Yavuz M.H. 1998. Turkish identity and foreign policy in flux: The rise of neo-Ottomanism. Critique: Critical Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 7, no. 12, pp. 19–41.

82. Youmans W.L. 2016. An unwilling client: How Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt defied the Bush administration’s ‘freedom agenda’. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 1209–1232. DOI: 10.1080/09557571.2015.1018137.