Brexit: Could France Follow the Lead?

Politicians and scholars generally agree that the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (‘Brexit’) is a unique phenomenon caused by a specific combination of domestic political, economic and social factors, which cannot recur in any other EU country, at least in the foreseeable future. The paper challenges these assumptions by advancing two hypotheses. Firstly, the author argues that Eurosceptic sentiments are almost as common in France as they once were in the UK, and, secondly, that it exactly in France where the next referendum on membership in the European Union could take place. In order to support these hypotheses, in the first section the author examines the main causes and the background of Brexit. The author identifies four key factors: 1) growing discontent of the local population with social and economic issues, which the supporters of Brexit ascribed to the inflow of cheap labor from Eastern Europe; 2) concerns about the possibility of losing national sovereignty as the power of EU supranational bodies increases; 3) support for Brexit on the part of certain political elites; 4) post-imperial syndrome. The second section shows that similar objective trends and public sentiments are developing in France, although can take different forms. As in the UK, certain segments of the French population show growing concern about the prospect of losing national sovereignty given the country’s declining influence within the EU, and call to curb immigration (mainly from North Africa). Additionally, what makes France’s case really unique is that both rightand left-wing eurosceptics are consistently strengthening their influence in the Fifth Republic. All this imposes greater demands on the current president-euroenthusiast E. Macron: his failure may provoke a systemic crisis within the EU, which it might not endure.

1. Byshok S. 2016. Brekzit i evroskeptiki. Evropeitsy protiv ES [Brexit and Eurosceptics. Europeans against the EU]. Moscow, Knizhnii mir Publ. (In Russ.)

2. Kaveshnikov N.Yu. 2016. Nekotorye posledstviya Brexita dlya razvitiya Evropeiskogo soyuza [Possible outcomes of Brexit for European Union development]. MGIMO Review of International Relations, no. 6 (51), pp. 24–30. DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2016-6-51-24-30. (In Russ.)

3. Kuzmina S.V., Sergeev S.A. 2019. Dvizhenie ‘zheltykh zhiletov’ i levye radikaly vo Frantsii [Movement of ‘Yellow vests’ and left-wing radicals in France]. Central Russian Journal of Social Sciences, no. 3, pp. 126–138. DOI: 10.22394/20712367-2019-14-3-126-138. (In Russ.)

4. Morozova E.G., Falina, A.S. 2017. Breksit kak novaya realnost’ Evropy: mneniya i otsenki ekspertov [Brexit as a new reality of Europe: Expert opinions and evaluations]. Vlast’, no. 4. pp. 160–170. (In Russ.)

5. Obichkina E.O. 2019. Sotsial’no-politicheskii krizis vo Frantsii: ‘Zheltye zhilety’ i zavershenie pervoi phazy pravleniya E. Makrona [Political crisis in France: ‘Yellow vests’ and the end of the first period of the E. Macron’s governance]. MGIMO Review of International Relations, no. 2, pp. 101–135. DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2019-2-65-101-135. (In Russ.)

6. Samoilov N.G. 2020. Frantsuzskie evroskeptiki v kontekste mir-sistemnogo analiza [French Eurosceptics in the context of world-systems analysis]. Contemporary Europe, no. 2, pp. 96–104. DOI: 10.15211/soveurope22020196204. (In Russ.)

7. Timofeev P.P. 2017. Frantsuzskii evroskeptitsizm: istoriya i sovremennost’ [French Euroscepticism: History and the present time]. Kontury global’nykh transformatsii: politika, ekonomika, pravo, no. 10 (1), pp. 53–68. DOI: 10.23932/25420240-2017-10-1-53-68. (In Russ.)

8. Chikhachev A.Yu. 2022. Frantsiya-2022: Raskolotoye obshchestvo i transformatsiya politicheskogo polya [France-2022: The divided society and reshaping of politics]. Nauchno-analiticheskii vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN, no. 26 (2), pp. 59–70. DOI: 10.15211/vestnikieran220225970. (In Russ.)

9. Anderson P.J. 2004. A flag of convenience? Discourse and motivation of the London-based Eurosceptic press. In: Harmsen R., Spiering M. (eds.). Euroscepticism: Party politics, national identity and European integration. Amsterdam, Rodopi, pp. 151–171.

10. Bache I. 2008. Europeanization and multilevel governance: Cohesion policy in the European Union and Britain. Lanham, Maryland, Rowman & Littlefield.

11. Baker D., Seawright D. 1998. Britain for and against Europe. Oxford, Clarendon Press.

12. Davies P. 1999. The National Front in France. London, Routledge.

13. Dunt I. 2016. Brexit: What the hell happens now? Kingston upon Thames, Canbury Press.

14. Ekete L. 2018. Europe’s fault lines: Racism and the rise of far right. London, Verso.

15. Gowland D., Turner A., Wright A. 2010. Britain and European integration since 1945: On the sidelines. London, Routledge.

16. Greenwood S. 1996. Britain and European integration since the Second World War. Manchester, Manchester University Press.

17. Hainsworth P., O‘Brien C., Mitchell P. 2004. Defending the nation: The politics of Euroscepticism on the French right. In: Harmsen R., Spiering M. (eds.). Euroscepticism: Party politics, national identity and European integration. Amsterdam, Rodopi.

18. Harmsen R., Spiering M. 2004. Introduction. In: Harmsen R., Spiering M. (eds.). Euroscepticism: Party politics, national identity and European integration. Amsterdam, Rodopi, pp. 13–37.

19. Hoffmann S. 2001. Obstinate or obsolete? France, European Integration and the fate of the nation-state. In: Tiersky R. (ed.). Euroskepticism: A reader. Lanham, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, pp. 157–185.

20. Joffe J. 2001. The Euro: The engine that couldn’t. In: Tiersky R. (ed.). Euroskepticism: A reader. Lanham, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, рр. 250–259.

21. Jones A. 2007. Britain and the European Union. Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press.

22. Leconte C. 2010. Understanding Euroscepticism. London, Palgrave MacMillan.

23. Macshane D. 2016. Brexit: How Britain left Europe. London, I.B. Tauris.

24. May A. 1999. Britain and Europe since 1945. London, Longman.

25. Meyer N. 2013. From Jean-Marie to Marine Le Pen: Electoral change on the far right. Europe Solidaire sans Frontieres. Available at: http://www.europesolidaire.org/spip.php?article40229 (accessed: 17.12.2022).

26. Milbank J. 2020. Britain after Brexit: Retrospect and prospect. In: Chaplin J., Bradstock A. (eds.). The future of Brexit Britain: Anglican reflections on national identity and European solidarity. London, SPCK, pp. 159–171.

27. Oliver C. 2017. Unleashing demons: The inside story of Brexit. London, Quercus.

28. Prince R. 2017. Theresa May: The enigmatic prime minister. London, Biteback Publishing.

29. Roxburgh A. 2002. Preachers of hate: The rise of the far-right. London, Gibson Square Books Ltd.

30. Seldon A., Snowdon P. 2015. Cameron at 10: The inside story 2010–2015. London, William Collins.

31. Shipman T. 2016. All out war: The full story of how Brexit sank Britain’s political class. London, William Collins.

32. Tsoukalis L. 2016. In defence of Europe: Can European project be saved? Oxford, Oxford University Press.

33. Wall S. 2008. A stranger in Europe: Britain and the EU from Thatcher to Blair. New York, Oxford University Press.