Preview

Lomonosov World Politics Journal

Advanced search

Changing role of security alliances in the post-Cold War era

https://doi.org/10.48015/2076-7404-2024-16-1-51-92

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Cold War, both scholars and experts frequently questioned the political relevance of security alliances, given the declining intensity of armed conflicts and the decreasing probability of major interstate wars. However, the post-bipolar international reality marked by the burgeoning of new alliances and coalitions, with old associations being reformed and/or expanded in membership rendered these questions obsolete. In fact, states not only continue to consider military alliance as an important foreign policy tool but actively develop new forms of alliances and coalitions. The article identifies the key trends in the evolution of military and political alliances over the period from the 1990s till the 2010s. Firstly, the authors highlight the waning interest of the leading powers towards formalized allied relations, since they increasingly perceive the latter as an unnecessary burden. At the same time, the researchers note that the leading powers adhered to different approaches to alliance and coalition building in the post-bipolar period. While the United States strengthened the transatlantic core (NATO) in the U.S.-centered network of alliances, relying on more flexible plurilateral formats in other regions of the world, Russia, India, and China did not seek to expand their respective blocs, providing collective security guarantees selectively. That said, all major powers share interest in promoting and developing asymmetric alliances both as tools to deter potential opponents and leverages over junior partners amidst the struggle for spheres of influence. Secondly, the authors conclude that the key feature of the post-Cold War coalition-building is the so-called ritual alliance, when military and political commitments are included in the agenda of regional integration groupings as an addition to substantive issues of cooperation rather than the reverse. Finally, in the 1990s and 2010s, the range of formats of an alliance expanded: from the traditional priorities of territorial defense, the focus has shifted towards expeditionary operations as a part of coalitions, the latter including not only sovereign states but also non-state patronage networks. In conclusion, the authors note that the major powers will continue to promote combined forms of alliances, as the loyalty of partners becomes of increasing strategic importance against the background of growing interstate rivalry.

About the Authors

I. A. Istomin
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation

Igor A. Istomin — PhD (Political Science), Acting Chair, Department of Applied International Political Analysis,

76, Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454.



A. V. Levchenko
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation

Alla V. Levchenko — PhD Candidate,

76, Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454. 



References

1. Bogdanov K.V. 2019. Vremya ad hoc? Gibkie koalitsii i nasledie Donalda Ramsfelda [Time for ad hoc? Flexible coalitions and the heritage of Donald Rumsfeld]. Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 32–45. (In Russ.)

2. Gromyko A.A. 2019. Dilemmy Evropejskogo oboronnogo soyuza [Dilemmas of European defense alliance]. Contours of Global Transformations: Politics, Economy, Law, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 6–28. DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-2-6-28. (In Russ.)

3. Zhurkin V.V., Nosov M.G. 2019. 20-letie voennogo izmereniya ES [20 years of the military dimension of the EU]. Modern Europe, no. 1 (86), pp. 5–13. DOI: 0.15211/soveurope120190513. (In Russ.)

4. Istomin I.A. 2023. Skazhi mne — kto tvoi drug? Opyt i perspektivy rossiiskogo soyuznichestva [Historical record and prospects of Russia’s alliances]. Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 21, no. 6, pp. 203–216. DOI: 10.31278/1810-6439-2023-21-6-203-216. (In Russ.)

5. Istomin I.A., Baikov A.A. 2019. Dinamika mezhdunarodnykh al’yansov v neravnovesnoi mirovoi sisteme [Dynamics of international alliances in an unbalanced world structure]. World Eсonomy and International Relations, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 34–48. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-1-34-48. (In Russ.)

6. Istomin I.A., Silaev N.Yu., Sushentsov A.A. 2018. Strategii soyuznichestva kontinental’nykh i morskikh derzhav [Strategies of alliances of continental and sea powers]. International Trends, vol. 16, no. 4 (55), pp. 42–62. DOI: 10.17994/IT.2018.16.4.55.3. (In Russ.)

7. Kireeva A.A. 2019. Budushchnost’ rossiisko-kitaiskogo soyuznichestva v kontekste teorii mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii [Theories of international relations and prospects of a military alliance between Russia and China]. International Trends, vol. 17, no. 4 (59), pp. 84–114. DOI: 10.17994/IT.2019.17.4.59.6. (In Russ.)

8. Nikitina Yu.A. 2009. ODKB i ShOS: modeli regionalizma v sfere bezopasnosti [The CSTO and the SCO: Regionalism models in the security area]. Moscow, Navona Publ. (In Russ.)

9. Istomin I.A. et al. (eds.). 2021. Strategii soyuznichestva v sovremennom mire: voenno-diplomaticheskii instrumentarii mezhdunarodno-politicheskoi konkurentsii [Strategies of alliance building in the modern world: Military and diplomatic tools of international political contest]. Moscow, MGIMO-Universitet Publ. (In Russ.)

10. Suchkov M.A., Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva M.S. 2021. Sravnitel’nyi analiz rossiiskikh strategii soyuznichestva na Blizhnem Vostoke [Comparative analysis of Russia’s alliance-formation strategies in the Middle East]. Comparative Politics Russia, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 69–81. DOI: 10.24411/2221-3279-2021-10006. (In Russ.)

11. Acheson D. 1987. Present at the creation: My years in the State Department. New York, London, W.W. Norton & Company.

12. Bas M., Schub R. 2016. Mutual optimism as a cause of conflict: Secret alliances and conflict onset. International Studies Quarterly, vol. 60, no. 3, pp. 552–564. DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqw002.

13. Beckley M. 2015. The myth of entangling alliances: Reassessing the security risks of U.S. defense pacts. International Security, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 7–48. DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00197.

14. Carr E. 1939. The twenty years’ crisis, 1919–1939: An introduction to the study of international relations. London, Macmillan.

15. Cha V.D. 2016. Powerplay: The origins of the American alliance system in Asia. Princeton, Princeton University Press.

16. Christensen T.J. 1999. China, the US-Japan alliance, and the security dilemma in East Asia. International Security, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 49–80. DOI: 10.1162/isec.23.4.49.

17. Cottey A. 2018. NATO’s partnerships. In: Cottey A. (ed.). The European neutrals and NATO: Non-alignment, partnership, membership? London, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 45–72.

18. Crescenzi M.J.C., Kathman J.D., Kleinberg K.B., Wood R.M. 2012. Reliability, reputation, and alliance formation. International Studies Quarterly, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 259–274. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00711.x.

19. Fearon J.D. 1995. Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization, vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 379–414. DOI: 10.1017/S0020818300033324.

20. Ghez J. 2011. Alliances in the 21st century: Implications for the US-European partnership. Santa-Monica, RAND Corporation.

21. Gibler D.M. 2008. The costs of reneging: Reputation and alliance formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 426–454. DOI: 10.1177/0022002707310003.

22. Green M.J. (ed.). 2019. Ironclad: Forging a new future for America’s alliance. Lanham, Rowman & Littlefield.

23. Karlsrud J., Reykers Y. 2020. Ad hoc coalitions and institutional exploitation in international security: Towards a typology. Third World Quarterly, vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 1518–1536. DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2020.1763171.

24. Keohane R.O. 1971. The big influence of small allies. Foreign Policy, no. 2, pp. 161–182. DOI: 10.2307/1147864.

25. Leeds B.A. 2003. Alliance reliability in times of war: Explaining state decisions to violate treaties. International Organization, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 801–827. DOI: 10.1017/S0020818303574057.

26. Leeds B.A., Long A.G., Mitchell S.M. 2000. Reevaluating alliance reliability: Specific threats, specific promises. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 686–699. DOI: 10.1177/0022002700044005006.

27. Leeds B.A., Ritter J., Mitchell S.M., Long A.G. 2002. Alliance treaty obligations and provisions, 1815–1944. International Interactions, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 237–260. DOI: 10.1080/03050620213653.

28. Liska G. 1962. Nations in alliance: The limits of interdependence. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press.

29. Morgenthau H.J. 1948. Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace. New York, Knopf.

30. Morrow J.D. 1991. Alliances and asymmetry: An alternative to the capability aggregation model of alliances. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 904–933. DOI: 10.2307/2111499.

31. Mueller J. 1989. Retreat from doomsday: The obsolescence of major war. New York, Basic Books.

32. Newnham R. 2008. ‘Coalition of the bribed and bullied?’ U.S. economic linkage and the Iraq War coalition. International Studies Perspectives, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 183–200. DOI: 10.1111/j.1528-3585.2008.00326.x.

33. Nga L.T.H., Hiep T.X., Thuy D.T., Huyen H.L. 2019. India-Bhutan treaties of 1949 and 2007: A retrospect. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, vol. 75, no. 4, pp. 441–455. DOI: 10.1177/0974928419874547.

34. Osgood R.E. 1968. Alliances and American foreign policy. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press.

35. Pierre A.J. 2002. Coalitions building and maintenance: The Gulf War, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and the war on terrorism. Washington, D.C., Georgetown University, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy.

36. Pinker S. 2011. The better angels of our nature: The decline of violence in history and its causes. London, Penguin.

37. Rice A.J. 1997. Command and control: The essence of coalition warfare. Parameters, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 152–167.

38. Ruonan L., Feng L. 2017. Contending ideas on China’s non-alliance strategy. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 151–171. DOI: 10.1093/cjip/pox003.

39. Smith A. 1995. Alliance formation and war. International Studies Quarterly, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 405–425. DOI: 10.2307/2600800.

40. Snyder G.H. 2007. Alliance politics. Ithaca, London, Cornell University Press.

41. Snyder G.H. 1984. The security dilemma in alliance politics. World Politics, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 461–495. DOI: 10.2307/2010183.

42. Snyder G.H., Diesing P. 2015. Conflict among nations: Bargaining, decision making, and system structure in international crises. Princeton, Princeton University Press.

43. Walt S.M. 1990. The origins of alliance. Ithaca, London, Cornell University Press.

44. Walt S.M. 1997. Why alliances endure or collapse. Survival, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 156–179. DOI: 10.1080/00396339708442901.

45. Waltz K.N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, AddisonWesley Publishing Company.

46. Weitsman P.A. 2010. Wartime alliances versus coalition warfare: How institutional structure matters in the multilateral prosecution of wars. Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 113–138.

47. Wilkins T.S. 2012. ‘Alignment’, not ‘alliance’ — the shifting paradigm of international security cooperation: Toward a conceptual taxonomy of alignment. Review of International Studies, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 53–76. DOI: 10.1017/S0260210511000209.

48. Wilkins T.S. 2015. From strategic partnership to strategic alliance? Australia-Japan security ties and the Asia-Pacific. Asia Policy, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 81–111. DOI: 10.1353/asp.2015.0028.

49. Wilkins T.S. 2011. Japan’s alliance diversification: A comparative analysis of the Indian and Australian strategic partnerships. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 115–155. DOI: 10.1093/irap/lcq022.

50. Wilkins T.S. 2008. Russo-Chinese strategic partnership: A new form of security cooperation? Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 358–383. DOI: 10.1080/13523260802284365.

51. Womack B. 2016. Asymmetry and international relationships. New York, Cambridge University Press.


Review

For citations:


Istomin I.A., Levchenko A.V. Changing role of security alliances in the post-Cold War era. Lomonosov World Politics Journal. 2024;16(1):51-92. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.48015/2076-7404-2024-16-1-51-92

Views: 281


ISSN 2076-7404 (Print)