Entering 2025: U.S.–Russian relations in the estimates and forecasts of American experts

The Biden administration’s policy toward Russia have plunged U.S.–Russian relations into a deep crisis. The bilateral negotiation process on military and political issues, including disarmament and regional conflicts, has been frozen. Large-scale U.S. economic sanctions have seriously damaged trade, economic, scientific, and technical ties between the two countries. However, the return of Republican Donald Trump to the presidency opens up a window of opportunity for reviving bilateral dialogue on a wide range of issues. The prospects for this dialogue largely depend on the willingness of U.S. leaders to depart from the near-sighted ideologized approaches of the previous adminis- tration to international relations and the role of the United States in them. In order to assess the likelihood of such a revision of Washington’s foreign policy framework, the author examines the views of U.S. political and academic elites on the prospects for the development of Russian-American relations against the backdrop of the transfer of power from Joe Biden to Donald Trump and through the first months of 2025. In this regard, the article covers a wide range of perspec- tives — from adherents of political realism, who advocate the resumption of the Russian–American talks, to liberal hawks and neoconservatives, who assess this dialogue as a threat to democratic and liberal values. The author notes a trend toward a gradual departure of some U.S. political and academic elites from the triumphalism that has dominated the minds of the American establishment since the collapse of the bipolar system. This trend has been most pronounced in assessments of the prospects for a strategic dialogue between the United States and the Russian Federation. In this context, many political and academic experts in the United States warn that Washington may engage in this dialogue from a position of relative weakness. However, the author emphasizes that direct U.S. engagement in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine renders a full-fledged resumption of the Russian–American talks on strategic stability nearly impossible. It is not yet clear what the incumbent administration will do to overcome the impasse in Russian–American relations. Constructive negotiations are only possible if both sides are open to an equal dialogue and recognize each other’s legitimate national interests.

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