A.K. Kissinger Doctrine: The Transformation of Russia-ChinaU.S. Strategic Triangle from the 1970s to the 2020s

The concept of ‘triangular diplomacy’, introduced by Henry Kissinger during the Cold War, acknowledged the specific character of relations between the United States, the Soviet Union, and the People’s Republic of China. It was designed to establish such a balance of power that the USA would consistently maintain a strategic advantage by exploiting the differences between the other two vertices of the strategic triangle. In contemporary conditions, the interaction within the new Russia–U.S.–China strategic triangle acquired particular significance given the reconfiguration of international relations and the shaping of a polycentric world order. The author posits that the reinstatement of President Trump in 2025may give a qualitatively new meaning to the ‘Kissinger Doctrine’, with Moscow potentially acting as the counterweight within the Russia–China–U.S. configuration. To substantiate this hypothesis, this study identifies the key stages and determinants in the evolution of the ‘Kissinger’s triangle’ from the 1970s onward. It demonstrates that while the USA was the primary beneficiary of this trilateral dynamic during the Cold War, this balance gradually shifted to the advantage of China during the post-bipolar period, albeit with some reservations. The latter benefited from its cooperation with both Russia and the United States as their bilateral relations were steadily deteriorating. However, current developments indicate that Russia may now be poised to become the ‘counterbalance’ within this framework. The following factors support this conclusion: (1) a generally favorable background following the high-level Russian-American negotiations; (2) the significant potential of Russian-Chinese cooperation and convergence of the two countries’ positions on a wide range of international issues; and (3) the intensification of D. Trump’s efforts to contain China. Together, these factors could create new opportunities for Moscow to strengthen its international standing, including resolving the Ukrainian crisis and restoring the dialogue on nuclear arms control.

1. Bogaturov A.D. 1997. Velikie derzhavy na Tikhom okeane. Istoriya i teoriya mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii v Vostochnoi Azii posle Vtoroi mirovoi voiny (1945–1995) [Great powers in the Pacific. History and theory of international relations in Eastern Asia after World War II (1945–1995)]. Moscow, Konvert — MONF Publ. (In Russ.)

2. Bogaturov A.D. 2017. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya i vneshnyaya politika Rossii [International relations and Russia’s foreign policy]. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ. (In Russ.)

3. Bogaturov A.D. 2021. Popytka perestroit’ mir ‘po-amerikanski’ [An attempt to rebuild the world ‘in the American way’]. MGIMO Review of International Relations, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 49–64. DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2021-5-80-49-64. (In Russ.)

4. Bubnova N.I. 2021. Voenno-politicheskii kurs SShA vo vtorom desyatiletii XXI veka [The U.S. military and political course in the 2020s]. Moscow, Politicheskaya entsiklopediya Publ. (In Russ.)

5. Vorob’eva T.A., Yungblyud V.T. 2019. Vzaimootnosheniya v treugol’nike SShA — SSSR — KNR v kontse perioda razryadki mezhdunarodnoi napryazhennosti (1977–1980 gg.) [Relations within ‘triangle’ USA — USSR — China at the end of détente (1977–1980)]. MGIMO Review of International Relations, no. 1 (64), pp. 59–82. DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2019-1-64-59-82. (In Russ.)

6. Voskresenskii A.D. 2019. Realizatsiya ‘kitaiskoi mechty’ v period ‘epokhi Si Tszin’pina’: chto ozhidat’ Rossii? [Realization of the ‘Chinese dream’ in Xi Jinping’s era: What should Russia expect?]. World Economics and International Relations, vol. 63, no. 10, pp. 5–16. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-10-5-16. (In Russ.)

7. Guliev I.A., Lobov D.S., Afanas’eva K.D. et al. 2023. Strategicheskie prioritety innovatsionnogo razvitiya neftegazovoi otrasli Rossii s uchetom mezhdunarodnogo opyta [Strategic priorities for the innovative development of the oil and gas industry in Russia, taking into account international experience]. Upravlenie riskom, no. 4 (108), pp. 44–50. (In Russ.)

8. Degterev D.A., Ramich M.S. 2021. Strategicheskie treugol’niki kak instrument balansirovaniya v mirovoi politike [Strategic triangles and balancing in world politics]. Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 23–43. DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2021-14-3-2. (In Russ.)

9. Denisov A.I. 2022. Rossiya i Kitai: dobrye sosedi i blizkie partnery (zametki diplomata) [Russia and China: Good neighbors and close partners (diplomat’s notes)]. Rossiiskoe kitaevedenie, no. 1, pp. 190–194. (In Russ.)

10. Zuenko I.Yu. 2023. Rossiisko-kitaiskoe sblizhenie v kontekste sopernichestva KNR i SShA: poisk otpravnoi tochki i otsenka perspektiv [Russia-China partnership in the context of US-China rivalry: Search of starting point and assessment of prospects]. World Eсonomy and International Relations, vol. 67, no. 11, pp. 24–34. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-11-24-34. (In Russ.)

11. Lebedeva O.V. 2024. Diplomaticheskaya sluzhba Rossii. Istoriya i sovremennost’ [Russia’s diplomatic service. History and modernity]. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ. (In Russ.)

12. Martynova E.S. 2022. Al’yansy QUAD i AUKUS i balans sil v AziatskoTikhookeanskom regione: perspektivy dlya Rossii, Kitaya i ASEAN [QUAD andAUKUS and the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region: Prospects for Russia, China and ASEAN]. O utlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 148–165. DOI: 10.31249/kgt/2022.03.09. (In Russ.)

13. Panov A.N. 2023. Novye tendentsii v razvitii mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii v Aziatsko-Tikhookeanskom regione [The new tendencies in the development of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region]. USA & Canada: Economics, Politics, Culture, no. 8, pp. 80–98. DOI: 10.31857/S2686673023080084. (In Russ.)

14. Pechatnov V.O. 2022. Istoriya i politika [History and politics]. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ. (In Russ.)

15. Pechatnov V.O. 2020. O nekotorykh konstantakh vzaimnogo vospriyatiya Rossii/SSSR i SShA [On some constants of mutual perception of Russia/the USSR and the USA]. Amerikanskii ezhegodnik, no. 2020, pp. 13–20. (In Russ.)

16. Pechatnov V.O., Manykin A.S. 2016. Istoriya vneshnei politiki SShA [History of U.S. foreign policy]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya Publ. (In Russ.)

17. Timofeev I.N., Chupriyanova P.I., Trotskaya K.V. (eds.). 2023. Politika sanktsii: tseli, strategii, instrumenty [Sanctions policy: Goals, strategies, tools]. Moscow, NP RSMD Publ. (In Russ.)

18. Pupyshev S.V., Raikova V.A. 2020. Moskovskii sammit 1972 g. i ego znachenie dlya politiki razryadki [The Moscow summit of 1972 and its significance for détente]. Metamorfozy istorii, no. 17, pp. 108–124. (In Russ.)

19. Shakleina T.A. (ed.). 2020. Rossiya i SShA v XXI veke: osobennosti otnoshenii [Russia and the USA in the 21st century: Specific features of relations]. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ. (In Russ.)

20. Salitskii A.I., Semenova N.K. 2019. Pod’’em Kitaya i rossiisko-kitaiskoe sblizhenie [Rise of China and Russian-Chinese rapprochement]. Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 117–132. DOI: 1023932/2542-0240-2019-12-1-117-132. (In Russ.)

21. Sogrin V.V. 2015. SShA v XX–XXI vekakh. Liberalizm. Demokratiya. Imperiya [The USA in the 20th–21st centuries. Liberalism. Democracy. Empire]. Moscow, Ves’ mir Publ. (In Russ.)

22. Timofeev I.N. 2024. Vtorichnye sanktsii SShA na rossiiskom napravlenii: opyt empiricheskogo analiza [The U.S. secondary sanctions related to Russia: Empirical analysis]. Comparative Politics Russia, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 95–114. DOI: 10.46272/2221-3279-2024-1-15-95-114. (In Russ.)

23. Travkina N.M. 2018. SShA: menyayushchiisya algoritm razvitiya [USA: A changing development algorithm]. Moscow, Ves’ mir Publ. (In Russ.)

24. Amirov V.B., Mikheev V.V. (eds.). 2009. Treugol’nik Rossiya–Kitai–SShA v ATR: faktory neopredelennosti [Uncertainties of the Russia–China–USA triangle in the Asia-Pacific]. Moscow, IMEMO RAN Publ. (In Russ.)

25. Trofimenko G.A. 1976. SShA: politika, voina, ideologiya [USA: Politics, war, ideology]. Moscow, Mysl’ Publ. (In Russ.)

26. Trush S.M. 2023. Politika D. Trampa v otnoshenii Kitaya: motivatsiya, evolyutsiya, itogi [Trump’s China policy: Motivation, evolution, outcomes]. Rossiiskoe kitaevedenie, no. 3 (4), pp. 69–92. DOI: 10.48647/ICCA.2023.60.79.005. (In Russ.)

27. Khuashen Ch. 2019. ‘Novyi treugol’nik’ v otnosheniyakh mezhdu Kitaem, Rossiei i SShA [‘New triangle’ in relations between China, Russia and the USA]. Comparative Politics Russia, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 69–85. DOI: 10.24411/2221-3279-2019-10017. (In Russ.)

28. Shakleina T.A. 2020. ‘Dilemma Ameriki’ v formirovanii sovremennogo mirovogo poryadka: rezul’taty deistvii SShA i formirovanie ‘evraziiskogo tsentra’ [‘American dilemma’ in the forging of a new world order: Results of the US policies and the rise of the ‘Eurasian center’]. International Trends, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 36–48. DOI: 10.17994/IT.2019.17.4.59.3. (In Russ.)

29. Dittmer L. 1981. The strategic triangle: An elementary game-theoretical analysis. World Politics, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 485–515. DOI: 10.2307/2010133.

30. Donaldson R.H., Nadkarni V. 2018. The foreign policy of Russia: Changing systems, enduring interests. New York, Routledge.

31. Jeannesson S. 2002. La guerre froide. Paris, La Découverte.

32. Kissinger H. 2011. On China. New York, Penguin Press.

33. Kissinger H. 1979. The White House years. Boston, Little, Brown and Company.

34. Lyon A. 2016. US politics and the United Nations: A tale of dysfunctional dynamics. London, Lynne Reiner Publisher.

35. Ross R.S. 1991. China learns to compromise: Change in U.S.–China relations, 1982–1984. The China Quarterly, no. 128, pp. 742–773.

36. Rozman G. 2022. Strategic triangles reshaping international relations in East Asia. Abingdon, Routledge.

37. Stent A. 2019. Putin’s world: Russia against the West and with the rest. New York, Twelve.

38. Stent А. 2016. Russia, China, and the West after Crimea. Washington, D.C., Transatlantic Academy. Available at: https://www.gmfus.org/sites/default/files/ Stent_RussiaChina_May16_complete.pdf (accessed: 10.10.2025).

39. Kim I. (ed.). 1987. The strategic triangle: China, the United States, and the Soviet Union. New York, Paragon House.

40. Trenin D.V. 2020. U.S. elections and Russia–U.S. relations. Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 18, no. 1 (69), pp. 146–156. DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2020-18-1-146-156.