INSIGHTS FROM POLICY PRACTITIONERS
Search for the new markets and niches for national exports is one of the core objectives of economic diplomacy in any modern state. For the Russian Federation this issue acquires particular relevance under present conditions, since the expansion of industrial exports is designed to reduce dependence on commodity exports, strengthen national competitiveness, ensure economic growth, and, correspondingly improve the quality of life of its population. In this regard, eff ective foreign economic activities are essential to the policy, aimed at ensuring the real sovereignty.
The paper examines the key elements of non-primary export support system in the Russian Federation. This research is based on both offi cial documents and modern academic literature on this issue and on the author’s personal experience gained while working in a number of relevant state institutions and development agencies, as well as commercial organizations.
The first section provides an overview of the key forms and instruments of export support in general, as well as describes the history and the current state of the Russian export support system. The author focuses on the activities of the national trade missions abroad, the Russian Export Center and intergovernmental commissions for trade, economic, scientifi c and technical cooperation. The author notes that many institutions within the framework of the state export support in the Russian Federation are just emerging and face many challenges and diffi culties. The latter include, primarily, the lack of inter-agency co-operation and policy coherence. There are no common operating standards or a unifi ed system of foreign offi ces.
On this basis, in the second section the author outlines a number of recommendations to improve the eff ectiveness of the Russian export support system. The author concludes that for the eff ective functioning of this system, it is necessary to harmonize the work and activities of its institutions. The latter should prioritize the needs of particular regions of the Russian Federation, coordinate their eff orts with regional export support centers and business associations.
In this regard, the author highlights the potential of the project to create a Unifi ed Export Promotion System, but admits that it has to be started from scratch. In addition, the paper outlines a set of specifi c recommendations that, if carried out consistently, might also contribute to the promotion of Russian goods to foreign markets and ensure the diversifi cation of the country’s economy.
FOREIGN POLICY OF RUSSIA AND THE CIS COUNTRIES
As relations between the Russian Federation and the West continue to deteriorate, traditional diplomatic instruments become less eff ective. Conversely, the role of alternative diplomatic channels is growing. However, the Russian foreign policy still tends to underestimate their potential. In particular, the soft power potential of the Russian regions appears to be largerly under-utilized.
The paper starts with a general overview of the specifi c features of sub-state/sub-national actors in the world politics. In particular, the author emphasizes that these actors are synthetic by nature, which predetermines their particular role on the international scene, as they can use policy instruments specifi c to both state and non-state actors. The author provides a model for classifi cation of the Russian regions based on the level of their international activity. The paper examines by what means the international activities of the regions can infl uence the interstate relations and outlines two basic frameworks for joint actions of the federal center and the regions on the international arena: ‘culture and image-building’ and ‘political plus’.
The author emphasizes the importance of the federal-regional cooperation in addressing foreign policy issues, particularly, in response to international crises. The paper assesses the capacity of diff erent Russian sub-national actors to actively participate through their soft power potential in normalization of interstate relations.
The author concludes that this potential could be successfully integrated into the Russian foreign policy strategy. However, in order to improve the quality of the federal-regional cooperation on the foreign policy issues, it is necessary to develop a new framework for interaction between the federal center and the regions of the Russian Federation, based on greater involvement of regional representatives in the decision-making process (which implies reassessment of the entire system of federal relations).
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Studies on missile defense, both in Russia and abroad, have been tradition- ally focused either on capabilities of the US national missile defense system to parry Russian or Chinese strategic nuclear forces, or on regional deter- rence of North Korea and Iran by means of regional missile defense (theater missile defense, TMD). However, the 2019 Missile Defense Review (MDR) emphasized the role of the TMD systems in the regional deterrence of the Russian Federation and China. So far this issue has received little attention and this paper aims to fill that gap.
The first section identifies the key points of the MDR concerning the capabilities of regional missile defense for regional deterrence of the major nuclear powers. The author also examines the views of different represen- tatives of the US Department of Defense on this issue, and concludes that the US military-political leadership has a generally positive assessment of the capabilities of the TMD systems to contain Russia and China in case of a regional crisis. In particular, planners emphasize the role of the regional missile defense in countering the ‘anti-access/access-denial’ capabilities and the concept of ‘escalate to de-escalate’ ascribed to Russia. At the same time, US policymakers express in that regard serious concerns about Russia’s and China’s progress in the development of hypersonic missile systems.
The second section examines the ongoing debates in Western expert so- ciety on the role of the regional missile defense in terms of deterring Russia and China. The author concludes that in this respect experts can provisionally be divided into two groups. The first group generally supports the arguments of the US military-political leadership and is optimistic about TMD capabili- ties for regional deterrence of Russia and China. The second group is more critical of these capabilities. They point out the lack of accurate data on the combat capabilities of such systems in active warfare and criticize question- able theoretical assumptions of their opponents.
The third section provides a critical analysis of the arguments presented in this debate. The author concludes that the current concepts of deterrence based on the use of regional missile defense systems do not fully address possible implications for regional security and strategic stability. The Russian Federation and China possess significant nuclear arsenals, which already make nuclear escalation involving these countries and the United States possible. Adding yet another variable (TMD) into this equation only aggravates the situation.
The US space activities from their inception have been closely connected with the private sector. However, only in 2010s private space companies have come to play a prominent role not only on the global market of space services but in the field of international security as well. At the same time, this trend towards commercialization of outer space use and the growing role of the private space sector in ensuring national security is still understudied.
This paper aims to partially fill this gap by assessing approaches to these issues adopted by the administration of D. Trump. In the first section the author notes that both conceptual and legal frameworks of private space activities lack clarity and proposes an operational definition of the phenomenon. The second section provides a brief overview of the key strategic policy documents of the Trump’s administration including those on commercial use of space in general and its implications for the US national security in particular. The third section identifies the trend towards the institutionalization of the US Space Forces as one of the priorities of the Trump’s administration military policy. The fourth section thoroughly examines key forms and areas of the public–private partnership in commercial use of space, including launch services, communication services, intelligence gathering, as well as production and maintenance of satellites. Finally, the fifth section assesses the prospects for private space activities given the current tightness of the space services market and growing competition.
The author concludes that private space plays a subsidiary role within the US national security and is still heavily dependent on state support. Nevertheless, the scope of public–private cooperation is expanding and the models of interaction are changing. The Trump’s administration has contributed to the development of the industry through liberalization of regulations and involvement of private sector in the new large-scale projects, such as the Artemis program. The other important outcome of the space policy of the 45th President of the United States is anchoring of private space activities in the US national security strategy documents.
REGIONAL ISSUES OF WORLD POLITICS
The paper provides a retrospective analysis of the European Union’s policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and its possible outcomes for BiH progress towards positive sovereignty amid growing international tensions in the Western Balkans. The paper draws on a vast body of both Russian and Western academic literature on the collapse of Yugoslavia, BiH under the Dayton Agreements, the possibilities of democracy building in divided societies, as well as on a range of official documents adopted by various EU institutions. On that basis the author assesses the prospects for BiH to survive in its current administrative-territorial borders. The paper examines the outcomes of the Bosnian War, as well as the main effects of the external governance mechanisms implementation in BiH. This allows the author to trace the evolution of the EU policy towards BiH and to reassess the country’s progress in terms of Eurointegration. Since the EU has refused to grant countries, which do not meet the Copenhagen criteria, the status of a member state ‘in advance’, the main conclusions on the prospects of the BiH accession to the EU are drawn from the European Commission’s 2020 Report on Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Following the logic and the structure of the report, the author assesses the BiH efforts to meet the set targets and criteria, such as establishing a stable democratic political system, promoting the development of civil society institutions and the rule of law, combating corruption and organized crime, ensuring the protection of human rights and freedoms, migration management, strengthening economy and regional cooperation.
The report of the European Commission clearly hints that most obstacles for BiH progress towards EU membership arise from the lack of support from the Republika Srpska and that it is impossible to overcome its obstruction within the framework of Dayton Agreements. However, the author argues that this fixation on revision of the Dayton Agreements, accompanied by excessive pressure on the Serbian community in BiH may provoke protective reaction of the Serbian community, resulting in a rising nationalism and disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY
This paper is an attempt to reassess the role of the Locarno Treaties (1925) in terms of the Versailles-Washington system of international relations evolution. The authors argue that the Locarno Treaties represent one of the turning points in the development of the international order after World War I. The Treaties were not a mere add-on to the Versailles system, in fact, they had replaced it and became the main legal instrument for maintaining security in the region. In order to test this hypothesis and provide a better understanding of how the contemporaries themselves assessed these agreements, the authors examine them within a broader context of debates on the European security issues, which took place in the 1920s.
The views of the British elites on this matter are of particular interest here, since it was the British diplomacy that was at the origin of the Locarno Conference in 1925. The paper draws on a wide range of recently declassified archival documents, as well as on the materials of the debates in the House of Commons and publications in the leading British newspapers. It allows the authors to trace the evolution of approaches by the main British political parties to security issues in Europe. A systematic comparison of views of the Conservative and the Labour party representatives on the Geneva Protocol and the Rhineland Pact shows that by mid-1920s the British political elites advocated for an in-depth transformation of the Versailles order, particularly, through the development of an effective mechanism for maintaining international security. On that basis a broad political consensus had arisen, which led to the formation of a new two-party structure (Tory-Labour) after World War I.
The study begins with an overview of the political situation in Europe and in Great Britain in the early 1920s. Then, it examines the Labour Party’s draft of the Disarmament Protocol, as well as the principal causes of its failure. Finally, the paper covers the preparatory process for and the progress of the Locarno negotiations. Special attention is paid to the debates in the House of Commons on the conference, particularly, on its outcome document - the Rhineland Pact.
The developments of the Spanish Civil War in 1936–1939, including its international aspects, have been thoroughly studied both in foreign and in Russian historiography. However, the introduction of new research approaches, in this case imagology, allows us to revisit even the well-established views. The paper examines the сreation and subsequent development of the image of Great Britain in the Soviet press in the context of the Spanish Civil War. The research draws on publications in the Soviet ‘Pravda’ and ‘Izvestiya’ newspapers, as well as in the ‘Ogoniok’, ‘Za rubezhom’ and ‘Agitator’s Sputnik’ magazines. The study reveales a rather ambiguous position of the Soviet press in relation to the British policy in Spain. Several topics played a key role in creating the image of the ‘Foggy Albion’ in the Soviet press. The leitmotif of publications of the Soviet journalists was the image of the empire in decline. In this regard, the Soviet press emphasized the acquiescence of the British government faced with aggressive actions from Francoists backed by Germany and Italy, as well as its inability to protect national interests of its own state. Parallel to this, the image of Great Britain as a split society was created. The Soviet journalists stressed that passivity of the government caused mounting criticism from both political left and right. At the same time, they praised the work of the civil society and volunteers in support of the republic. Finally, the Soviet media bashed London for its gradual drift from non-intervention towards appeasement and even direct inducement of aggressors. The author concludes that the image of Great Britain created in the Soviet press was intended to convince the Soviet public opinion in the fallacy of the British policy. In the face of an impending global war, London was portrayed as an unreliable ally, prone to concessions to aggressors.
REVIEW ESSAYS AND BOOK REVIEWS
The review examines a new book ‘Media pandemic. Crisis communication / communication crisis’ (‘Pandémie médiatique. Com de crise / crise de com’) by the executive vice-president of the Havas Group Stephan Fouks, which was published in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on his rich and unique practical experience as a head of a large media organization, a consultant at international organizations and a presidential campaign manager, the author assesses the role of media communications in the context of the coronavirus outbreak.
The book under review is addressed primarily to experts in International Relations. It covers a wide range of issues including the causes of the crisis, which led to a paradigm shift in international communications, and specifi cs of the communication policies in France and some other European states. The author concludes that these policies refl ect a general crisis of the ruling elites (political establishment). Here the author continues to further elaborate on the ideas of his previous book — ‘The New Elites: portrait of a generation that will ignore’ (‘Les Nouvelles Elites: portrait d’une génération 1ui s’ignore’).
The author provides a critical analysis of the key elements of communication strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic, from the ruling elites to the expert community, and delineates methods and the role of international communication in the future.
The reviewers emphasize that the monograph by Stefan Fouks goes beyond the traditional formats of communication studies, which tended to focus either on the various crises, or on the organization of media structures in diff erent states, public-private partnership, and corporate communications, and thus were too narrow in scope. In ‘Media-pandemic’ the author stresses multidimensional nature of international communications and argues that their paradigmatic shift was brought by both the development of digital technologies and anthropogenic factors in the form of the global COVID-19 pandemic.